Nov 19 2008
Who’s bluffing
Al Qaeda threatened Obama and the US again. Will Al Qaeda attack now that they have announced it? WHen they have attacked before I don’t think it has been with a warning right before it happened. It makes it harder to carry out an attack when you’re enemy is looking for it. So either Al Qaeda does not have the ability to do more than threaten us right now or it is part of a plan to confuse us before the real attack happens at some point in the future or before an attack somewhere else.
Iran seems to be willing not to stop enrichment of Uranium and possibly it’s work towards nuclear weapons. Iran says it’s only working on a civilian nuclear plan but they won’t give enough information to verify that or take a step towards being less provacative in the way they develop their nuclear program. Sounds just like Saddam Hussien right before we invaded. You can either believe Saddam had no WMD and didn’t want to appear weak and didn’t budge because he thought we wouldn’t attack or you can believe he had the WMD and moved them someplace like syria right before and during the invasion. If Saddam really thought we wouldn’t invade he must not have been very smart considering we built up all those troops right near him and said we were about to invade in x amount of days. But the point is, is Iran bluffing?
Israel several times acted like they would do a pre emptive strike to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons but it seems like they really won’t act without US approval which is not coming.
It seems like there is a lot of talk and intimidation going on but are any of these situations more than bluffing? It’s hard to know but it seems like when people or leaders talk on a regular basis about something they mean it, but when people are playing politics they are usually bluffing. I think most players of the game know this even though the public doesn’t.
There will probably be more attacks from Al Qaeda but it might be a good amount of time before it happens here again, more likely it will happen overseas on easier targets. Iran will likely develop nuclear weapons but either use them to push their weight around to get what they want or they could possibly sell weapons to terrorists who will use them later but not at this point. Israel who might be able to stop Iran at least for a few years will not likely act to do so because they lack strong leadership and because they fear they couldn’t pay the dhort term costs of such an attack. These are allstill really bad problems but our leaders not to look at the long term problems and deal with them correctly right now to prevent them.
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Al Qaeda has had it pretty easy in the last 8 years. It sized up GWB in the months immediately following 9/11 and has managed to escape extinction despite the best efforts of the Bush administration. Now there’s a new kid on the block, an unknown quantity and so yep I guess they’re going to be a little uneasy as to what to expect. Threat of attack is a well known defense strategy so I guess they hope to scare everyone out of their normal lives by posturing. Whether or not they would attack is hard to say, especially given that homeland security is one area the Bush administration did improve …didn’t they?