ChristianPolitics

I like to be honest regardless of the situation. So I will say things do look pretty bad for John McCain at this point and it does seem like the election is all but over.

However, a week ago Zogby showed the race as a dead heat and now an AP poll shows the race as a virtual tie. How can some polls have Obama with a 14 point lead and some show a tie?

They say reading polls is more of an art than a science. That should tell us all something right there. Pollsters don’t just ask 100 people who they will vote for and then show the results. They ask a bunch of other questions like have you voted in the past elections, do you think you will vote this time, what party are you? Then they do things like weigh some things heavier than others in coming up with the numbers. They usually for example use a high sample of democrats than republicans because they say there are more democrats than republicans. But it’s not always easy to find these rules which are called internals, You have to wonder if they use more democrat answers in a state where there are more republicans.

Also there is likely bias by the polling organization. It’s hard not to have bias and I know the one time I was polled in the past about politics that the questions were asked in such a way as to get a predetermined answer.

There is also what’s called the Bradley effect, which is where more people say they will vote for a black candidate than who actually will because they don’t want the pollsters to think they are racist. This of course wouldn’t be seen until after the actual election results come in.

Think about this. Whenever I hear a poll number totted on TV it’s always the one that shows Barrack Obama with the greatest lead. They don’t mention the other polls. So there is also bias on the reporting of polls

Rasmussen Reports which is usually seen as a pretty good pollster by both sides has had the race at a 5 or 6 point difference for almost the past month and has said the race is remarkably stable.

Even though there may not be another October surprise, and the economic situation seems to favor Democrats the undecided may mostly wind up going with McCain and some who have said they will vote for Obama may vote for McCain. At this  point I still think John McCain has a lot to worry about but I think Obama needs to stop measuring the white house curtains.

 Though some are already calling for a blowout, this may be a very close race and if John McCain wins people should not blame voter fraud but bad polling and the media for making this race seem as though it’s over when it’s not.

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