Oct 06 2008
Worried about the polls?
Today the polls show Barrack Obama with anywhere from a 4 to an 8 point lead. What does this really mean?
Rasmussen Daily has Obama up 52 to 44 over McCain
Gallup Daily has Obama up 50% to 42%
However elections are not decided by a majority of the population but a majority of electoral votes, 270 are needed to win. Now even if you look at electoral map polls which show who is likely winning each state you will find a wide variation in results. Granted pretty much, if not all of them will show Obama with a substantial lead. However, that is because most of the undecided or what people think are undecided or toss up states are states that have recently gone to republicans in presidential elections. This may look and indeed be bad for the republicans but keep a few things in mind. First, I took a close look at one of these maps from a reliable source and while it correctly lists Ohio as a toss up state showing state polling with McCain in a one point lead, it shows Wisconsin as likely democrat with only a 2 percent lead in that state in favor of Obama. The reason for this is because Wisconsin has been a democrat state. But to be fair it should also be listed as a toss up because 1-3 points are in the margin of error. Second, a few weeks ago McCain was tied or in the lead in the polls. A few months ago Obama was ahead in the polls. These things can and often change a lot. However a financial crisis like the one we seem to be in now will most likely continue to favor Obama.
2 Responses to “Worried about the polls?”
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again…
www.pollster.com
www.fivethirtyeight.com
www.realclearpolitics.com
McCain has to win every toss-up state, Obama needs just one. The ball is in Obama’s hands (and has been for a while) as long as he doesn’t screw something up on a major scale, and I mean a major scale — ties to Rev. Wright and William Ayers aren’t going to cut it — McCain virtually has no shot.